CHARTWELL CONSULTING: Research

“Out of intense complexities, intense simplicities emerge.”
Sir Winston Churchill

This is an archive of articles, research papers and Chartwell Reviews that we have authored since 2000. For your convenience, we have organized the Archives by topic for easy retrieval.

Chartwell Reviews

Defined Contribution Plans

2009 PLANSPONSOR DC Survey Summary (June 2010)
Each year for the last fourteen years, PLANSPONSOR magazine has conducted a survey of the defined contribution marketplace to identify industry trends. The attached document contains a summary of that survey, along with commentary on the notable highlights.
2008 PLANSPONSOR DC Survey Summary (June 2009)
Each year for the last thirteen years, PLANSPONSOR magazine has conducted a survey of the defined contribution marketplace to identify industry trends. The attached document contains a summary of that survey, along with commentary on the notable highlights.

Economic Research

What Economists are Forecasting for the First Half of 2006 (January 2006)
Twice a year, the Wall Street Journal polls fifty-six of the country’s most influential economists for their six-month economic forecasts. This survey presents the average results for the first half of 2006.
An Economic Forecast for Mid-Year 2005 (July 2005)
Twice a year the Wall Street Journal conducts a survey collecting the economic forecasts of fifty leading economists. In this briefing note, we share the results of that survey with you, plus our comments and observations.
An Economic Forecast for 2005 (January 2005)
Twice a year the Wall Street Journal conducts a survey collecting the economic forecasts of fifty leading economists. In this briefing note, we share the results of that survey with you, plus our comments and observations.
An Economic Forecast for Mid-Year 2004 (July 2004)
Twice a year the Wall Street Journal conducts a survey collecting the economic forecasts of fifty leading economists. In this briefing note, we share the results of that survey with you, plus our comments and observations.
An Economic Forecast for 2004 (January 2004)
Twice a year the Wall Street Journal conducts a survey collecting the economic forecasts of fifty leading economists. In this briefing note, we share the results of that survey with you, plus our comments and observations.
An Economic Forecast for Mid-Year 2003 (July 2003)
A mid-year summary of the latest economic forecasting survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal.
An Economic Forecast for 2003 (March 2003)
Twice a year the Wall Street Journal conducts a survey collecting the economic forecasts of fifty leading economists. In this briefing note, we share the results of that survey with you, plus our comments and observations.
An Economic Forecast for Mid-Year 2002 (July 2002)
A mid-year summary of the latest economic forecasting survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal.
An Economic Forecast for 2002 (January 2002)
A new year summary of the latest economic forecasting survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal.

Equity Market Research

Investment Arrhythmia (February 2006)
After receiving a thought-provoking investment article from Legg Mason Capital Markets, we provide our synopsis and commentary. LMCM is among the more bullish equity teams we’ve talked to recently. (Bill Miller, rock star manager of the Legg Mason Value Trust mutual fund, heads their equity management group.) When pressed, most equity portfolio managers project the domestic stock market will advance six to nine percent in 2006; LMCM suggests double that, and makes its case based on history.
Chartwell’s Advisory Scorecard (January 2005)
Each January, in our Chartwell Review, we offer some perspective on the upcoming year. Here is an update of how our thoughts from last January are working out.
Equity Markets - One Year After the Bear (October 2003)
This paper discusses the current equity market recovery in the context of previous recoveries, and today's resulting equity market valuation level. It is particularly timely, as October 9, 2003 marks the current bull market's one-year anniversary. This paper is the latest in a series of briefing notes we've published on the topic, first initiated in July 2002.
What A Ride! (December 2002)
After the market’s severe decline in September 2002, we have experienced a significant rally. Is it sustainable? Is the rally over? This research paper contains our thoughts on the market’s recent move, and is a follow-up to our July and October articles on the market’s volatility and valuation.
Equity Valuation - October 2002 (November 2002)
An update of our July 2002 comments, again using the Fed Model to explore the equity market’s fundamental value relative to the long-term bond market.
The Fed Model (July 2002)
An explanation of how to develop and interpret this straightforward equity market valuation technique, named because of its reportedly frequent use by Federal Reserve Bank members.
Equity Markets - Where Do We Go From Here? (July 2002)
An analysis of the equity market’s current valuation, using the Fed Model as a guide.
Equity Style Management in a New Economy World (December 2000)
A review of the current challenges associated with equity-style investing (growth vs. value).

Fixed Income Research

Managing Risk (December 2005)
There are many risks associated with fixed income investing but, before risk can be measured, it must be identified and defined. This article defines the many types of risks associated with fixed income investing and encourages investors to identify the types of risks that are most important to their plans before attempting to measure risk levels.
Interest Rate Risk (December 2005)
Given today’s interest rates and the shape of the yield curve, here are some thoughts on how you might want to address interest rate risk.
The Basics of Investing in TIPS (October 2002)
Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS) have been getting a great deal of attention by fund sponsors during the past two years. Their conservative characteristics make them a good hedge against both inflation and weak equity markets. Learn more about TIPS and how they may offer a valuable diversification tool for your portfolio.

Asset Allocation

Portfolio Rebalancing (October 2003)
Our research group recently completed a rigorous study of the impact rebalancing methods have on plan or fund performance.
Ten Years of Asset Class Performance (March 2003)
After three years of a bear market and extreme market volatility, investors are becoming increasingly risk averse and focused on short-term performance. Taking a look back at how various asset classes have performed during the past ten years can provide much needed perspective on the benefits of diversification during these turbulent times.
An Almost Year-end Review - Thoughts on Asset Allocation (December 2001)
This is our preliminary year-end review and commentary on asset allocation strategy for 2002. Additional information is contained in the fourth quarter Chartwell Review.
Where Do We Go From Here? (January 2001)
A strategic perspective on specific asset allocation issues as the new year begins.

Alternative Assets

An Introduction to Alternative Investment Strategies (May 2000)

Legislative and Compliance Updates

Would you like to learn more details about the most recent major tax legislation, H.R. 1836, The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001? Its impact on retirement plans is significant. Click below for a summary (prepared by Davis & Harman LLP) of the principal retirement provisions that are affected by this law:

Summary of H.R. 1836, the Economic Growth & Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001
Overview of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (May 2003)
Corporate accounting scandals have plagued investment markets since Enron declared bankruptcy in December of 2001. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, perhaps the most sweeping securities legislation since 1934, was passed to reform public company auditing and accounting practices, establishing guidelines for corporate responsibility and accountability to investors.

Recent controversies at various investment management and consulting practices have reminded institutional investment officers and committees how important it is to engage in good fiduciary practices. The Uniform Prudent Investor Act provides the guiding principles in this regard. The following four articles, from MorningstarAdvisor.com, were written by an expert in the field. Together, they provide a highly readable review of fiduciary “dos and don’ts.” Click below to read the four monthly columns: